Sales of tablets will represent less than 10% of all devices while smartphones to represent 71% of the global mobile phone market in 2014

Tablet sales growth is slowing in 2014 as new hardware buyers turn to alternative devices and existing users extend the lifetime of their tablets. 

Research firm, Gartner, estimates that tablet sales worldwide will reach 229 million units in 2014, an 11% increase from 2013, representing 9.5% of total worldwide sales of devices in 2014. This stands against figures for 2013, where tablet sales grew by 55%.

Worldwide combined shipments of devices (including PCs, tablets, ultramobiles and mobile phones for 2014 are estimated to reach 2.4 billion units in 2014, a 3.2% increase from 2013.

"The device market continues to evolve, with the relationship between traditional PCs, different form factor ultramobiles (clamshells, hybrids and tablets) and mobile phones becoming increasingly complex," said Ranjit Atwal, research director at Gartner.

In the tablets segment, the downward trend stems from the slowdown in basic ultramobiles - new sales of iPads and Android tablets - and the lifetime extension of current tablets to three years by 2018. Gartner projects over 90 million fewer new tablet purchasers and 155 million fewer tablet replacements through 2018.

"Some tablet users are not replacing a tablet with a tablet, they are favouring hybrid or two-in-one devices, increasing its share of the ultramobile premium market to 22% in 2014, and 32% by 2018," said Atwal. 

The mobile phone segment will continue to grow in 2014 due to strong sales of lower end smartphones. Sales of basic smartphones (including mid range Android devices) are projected to grow 52% in 2014, while utility smartphone units (including low end Chinese white box devices) will double.

"The market is clearly favouring those vendors offering value in lower priced smartphones. This trend has become more apparent, especially in the second quarter of 2014 when most of the top Chinese smartphone vendors grew volume and market share," said Roberta Cozza, research director at Gartner. “As smartphones reach lower prices, Gartner expects nine out of 10 phones to be smartphones by 2018.”

The expansion of affordable mobile phones that are attracting replacements in many emerging countries has contributed to the increase in the global market share of smartphones, which is set to reach 71% in 2014, up 17 percentage points from 2013. Android and iOS have further entrenched their market positions in the global phone market, making it difficult for alternative ecosystems to become more than niche players.

In the operating system (OS) market, the emerging markets represent an attractive sector for Android, which is set to grow 47% in 2014 to 928,135, from 632,517 in 2013. In 2015, Gartner estimates that shipments of Android devices will reach over one billion in emerging markets (1,117,860), driven by sales of lower cost products. 

In mature markets, Android is predicted to ship 313,529 this year, up from 266,701 last year. In 2015 Android is predicted to reach 337,791 in mature market shipments. Android is followed by iOS/Mac OS in mature markets, which should hit 167,787 shipments this year from 157,273 last year. iOS/Mac OS should reach 182,564 in 2015. Windows in third place stands at 141,977 for 2014, compared to 138,312 last year. It is expected to reach 149,128 next year.

Apple's new devices, which target the premium market, will continue to help drive iOS volumes. These devices will benefit from a controlled and integrated ecosystem, a focus on the user experience and a leading enterprise tablet position.